Ratings have become an increasingly popular method of identifying selections within horse racing and there are now many different sources supplying this information and data.
The issue however with most services offering ratings is that they are generally based on the same sources of information and use very similar criteria e.g recent form, going, distance etc.
Whilst all of the above criteria is relevant to the selection process it will generally lead to the same or similar selections and therefore the opportunity of finding strong 'value' is reduced.The only way to find true 'value' is to find angles and opportunities that are not seen or used by the majority of the betting public and are therefore under-bet in the market.
The other issue is that the vast majority of ratings use a set of generic criteria that is not adapted to suit the specific race types e.g. stallion data is more relevant for maiden and NHF races where there is often far less known form than say a 3yr old+ handicap race. Essentially one size does not fit all when using ratings.
I have been personally developing, refining and using my own horse ratings since 2009 shortly before racing became my full-time occupation and I have spent literally hundreds of hours working on them during this time.
I actually started with 9 key factors that were used to calculate the final rating but over the 5 years of using them and analysing the results this has been condensed to the 7 that clearly have the biggest impact on the outcome of races in UK and Irish racing (across all three race codes Flat, All Weather and National Hunt).
The SImon Patton Racing Horse Ratings are unique in a number of ways;
Firstly they use a number of factors not used by other ratings (please see below).
Secondly they weight the specific factors that are most appropriate to the race type. This means that the final rating is calculated giving more relevance to certain factors depending on the type of race e.g. Maiden, Handicap, NHF etc.
This makes the ratings very different from any others that I have currently seen available and the overall performance of the 3 top rated often delivers a win strike of over 60%.
So what are the 7 key factors that make up the overall rating?
1/ Last Time Out Rating; strong correlation with winning and placed horses next time out.
2/ Speed Rating; uses best, average, distance, going and course speed data.
3/ Trainer Rating; uses 2yr, 90 day and 30 day performance plus course and jockey combination data.
4/ Potential Rating; uses number of runs and overall performance to date and then applies a weighted rating based on future improvement/potential. This rating is very unique and hugely powerful in identifying 'value selections'
5/ Stallion Rating; uses Stallion performance data including distance, going and age.
6/ Jockey Rating; this looks at 14 day, 30 day, 2 year and course data.
7/ Conditions Rating; uses going, distance, official rating (for handicaps) jockey claim and draw bias (flat and A/W) data to give a specific rating for today's condtions based on past performance.
The ratings spreadsheet also provides other additional information including race distance and class, race type, official rating (for handicaps), no of runners and days since last run all of which can be filtered for analysing.
How are the ratings presented?
All the data above plus the standard race-card information is presented in an excel workbook that can be easily filtered to support further analysis. The spreadsheet ranks the horses best to worst for each race based on their overall rating (highlighted in green).
How do I use the information?
This is a very important question as understanding how to make profit from your selections is just as important as identifying strong contenders. The answer very much depends on your betting strategy or goals. Some people will back others will lay, some people will prefer to back short priced, top rated horses whilst others will prefer to Dutch bet higher priced strongly rated selections.
Like the ratings themselves one size does not fit when deciding how to bet on a race. The ratings will however identify strong betting opportunities to suit all betting types and styles.
Can I see an example of the ratings?
As well as the demo video above there a downloadable excel version of the ratings below.
The SPR ratings are brand new for 2016 and have never been available to the general betting public before. I currently have access to or have reviewed many sets of horse ratings in the past and I know that the SPR Horse Ratings are very different to anything else currently available and an excellent tool to identify profitable selections.
Please find below a downloadable version of the daily ratings. This is the format that they are sent out in via e-mail each day.